Article by: Lenaiyasa Lilian, Senior Programme Officer at DLCI

Drought is not the problem — weak policies and delayed action are.

Kenya’s drought crisis dominates headlines, yet the narrative remains incomplete. Often framed as an unavoidable natural phenomenon, the reality is far more complex: drought in Kenya is largely a governance and policy failure, not a weather problem.

Over 80% of Kenya’s landmass is classified as arid and semi-arid land (ASAL), home to millions of pastoralists who rely on livestock for food, income, and trade.

During the 2020–2022 drought, more than 2.6 million livestock died, wiping out years of household wealth and pushing millions into food insecurity. These losses were predictable, yet long-term, structural solutions remain under-prioritised.

Looking Ahead: Climate Signals for 2026

Early forecasts signal continued drought risk in 2026. The March–May season may bring variable rains, and this could affect rainfall patterns mid-year.

This means Kenya remains at risk of continued drought impacts, especially in key pastoralist counties where millions already face acute food and water insecurity. NDMA’s December 2025 bulletins (published January 2026) show that Mandera County is already in the Alarm phase and has the highest level of food insecurity recorded at the time. Nine counties are entering into the Alert phase, and the situation is worsening in Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo, and Tana River. Other ASAL counties are in Normal but worsening conditions.

Key question:

If drought is predictable, why does Kenya continue to react rather than prevent the crisis? It is not difficult to plan and implement anticipatory actions that ensure no animal that goes through drought in Kenya dies for lack of water, pasture or preventable disease.

Pastoralism: Kenya’s Invisible Economic Powerhouse

Pastoralism is not just a way of life; it is a multi-billion-shilling economic system feeding Kenya.

• Livestock contributes 12% of Kenya’s GDP and over 40% of agricultural GDP, this is according to Livestock Sector Contribution reports.
• Pastoralism supports urban food markets, processors, exports, and cross-border trade.

Samburu pastoralists walking with their herd, photo credit, ILRI

Yet pastoralism remains largely invisible in mainstream development planning and national food system strategy. Public investment in livestock value chains, veterinary services, cold storage, and market access has lagged far behind its economic contribution, leaving pastoralists exposed to climate shocks, price volatility, and asset loss.

Question for policymakers and investors:

Why does Kenya rely on pastoralism for food security yet fail to invest in its growth?

International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralism 2026 (IYRP)

The International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralism, officially designated for 2026, highlights the global significance of rangelands and pastoralist communities.

For Kenya, whose drylands host millions of pastoralists and contribute significantly to national food security and the economy, this is a critical opportunity to reflect and act. Kenya’s drylands are economic frontiers, not wastelands, with immense potential in:

• Livestock production
• Renewable energy
• Trade and tourism
• Natural resource-based
• , enterprises

Current situation of drought in Northern Kenya. Photo credit Angaaf Radio

Key question:
What exactly are pastoralists in Kenya celebrating in 2026?

Recognition, economic value, or real policy change?

The celebration must go beyond ceremony, signalling new public investment, empowerment, and transformation to turn pastoralism from a marginalised way of life into a sustainable, profitable, and productive economic development sector.

Drought as a Governance Challenge

Drought is predictable. What we lack is action.

Sixty years after independence, Kenya’s ASALs remain marginalised despite hosting over 70% of the national livestock herd and holding vast untapped economic potential.

Systemic challenges include:

• Weak integration of drought risk management into national and county planning and budgets
• Overreliance on humanitarian responses
• Limited commercialisation and formalisation of livestock, livestock products and rangeland economies

Treating livestock primarily as a cultural asset rather than economic capital has constrained policy ambition. Livestock deserves strategic investment, including financing, insurance, veterinary services, infrastructure, and market access.

Pastoralism Is Part of the Solution

Kenya does not lack policies, institutions, or technical knowledge. What it lacks is alignment between intention, investment, and implementation.

Bold fact: Drought can be managed as a predictable risk, not a recurring emergency.

The future of Kenya’s food security, climate resilience, and regional trade is inseparable from the future of pastoralism.

When Pastoralists Thrive, Kenya Thrives!

NDMA, FAO, JAMEEL OBSERVATORY, SPARC, MERCY CORPS, STATE DEPT OF ASALS, ACTED, IGAD, NRT, PPG,  SVCF, TCF